Everybody Lies

My friends, please forgive the provocative headline. Actually, you are NOT about to be treated to an angry rant. EVERYBODY LIES is the title of a book that I have read and re-read in recent weeks. Its author is Seth Stephens-Davidowitz. The entire title is: Everybody Lies, Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are (Day Street Books, 2017).

If you are a marketer, a media tactician, a political consultant or even a serious investor, may I suggest that this book is required reading. Much of the book covers how Big Data is getting to be a better and better forecasting tool. Seth is a very engaging writer and questions the significance of surveys using the moniker in his title of Everybody Lies. How did Trump surprise the pundits with his electoral college win? Easy, several percent of people surveyed did not want to appear politically incorrect, so they did not admit for whom they would vote. As a media researcher, I often wondered how PBS would consistently do a 2.0 rating in most Nielsen markets (DMA’s). Back in the 70’s Masterpiece Theatre probably did not really deliver Downton Abbey size ratings but people said they were watching to appear more sophisticated.

The author raises some profound issues although he does not address the advertising model directly. By looking at purchase data, a marketer has a great handle on your likes, dislikes and how you spend your time and money. Why bother with traditional media where over 90% of your audience will never be buyers? Zero in using Big Data and the marketing effort becomes infinitely more profitable. Forecasting is never easy but it has to get sharper as Big Data gives you real world information. As Winston Churchill once put it—“Facts are better than dreams.”

I will return to this topic and book a few times in the weeks and months to come. Meanwhile, take a look at EVERYBODY LIES. It is the clearest presentation of the future and usefulness of Big Data that I have seen to date.

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com