Connecting the Dots

Someone, quite young, asked me recently, if there are any advantages to getting old. I laughed but said yes, to me, there was a really big one. “These days, I am much better than ever at connecting the dots.” The young adult did not quite get what I was saying so I gave an explanation that I will now share in part with you.

As kids, we were given little games or quizzes where we had to connect the dots on a page. The resulting artwork was sometimes logical but usually messy but always fun. As the years went on, I was confronted by many problems or situations and the assignment remained to somehow find a way to “connect the dots”.  In the business world “connecting the dots” usually means making logical inferences connecting items of information. Over time, most of us should have gotten better at it.

When I look at issues today in media, marketing or finance, I often conjure up the familiar refrain of “I have seen this movie before.” Business goes in cycles and while many think that something is totally new, the reality is that many things are a rehash of the past or simply packaged differently. Companies that are allegedly the next best thing get overextended financially and crash and burn. In media, the “new” is really a new platform but the idea is not novel. Also, as more players crowd in to that unique and new space, there is a big shakeout and the original players depart. Were Google and Facebook and Amazon the first in their categories? No way. Yet, they executed better and pushed out rivals who were at the party earlier.

By writing this, I am not being cynical. What I am saying is that when something seems to be the next big thing or dominant player in a category, I always take a breath and try and connect the dots in the situation. Is this truly unique? Is it capitalized properly? Is the timing in the business cycle good or terribly risky?

It is amazing how the “cannot lose” upstarts rarely make it. The backers of such enterprises are not spending enough time trying to connect the dots. Do I still get fooled? Of course! My batting average is getting better as  compared to similar situations from the past. Yet, I rarely get wrapped up in the euphoria of someone’s somewhat breathless description of the next Apple or Amazon.

Mark Twain allegedly said that “History does not repeat itself but it rhymes” (Actually, some argue the saying first emerged in 1970! Twain passed on in 1910). What it means is that there are many similarities from past enterprises or events that help us predict the future. So, old folks, I cannot help you with your aches and pains. Yet, on a positive note, just remember, if you stay alert and objective, you may well connect the dots better than many half your age. Experience counts!

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com