Over the years, I have been an outspoken critic of how governments in the western world have never had the political courage to face the demographic disaster that marches relentlessly towards them. In person, I have often found that I need to check myself so as not to disrupt a pleasant gathering or dinner with my warning.
The media world ignores the inevitable. Yes, a few Cassandras arguing about imminent Wall Street collapse sometimes mention the issue as an aside. So, I promise, for the last time in Media Realism, I will in this post provide a less than gentle reminder of some future troubles.
Demographics drive the bus in society as I have often written. With all the side noise such as the horrors of Covid and the disaster in Ukraine, the demographic trends continue to move right along at many developed nations. The issue can be centered around one term—entitlements.
When Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid were instituted in the United States we were a much younger nation demographically. Sixty-five was considered a fair age to initiate benefits as not all that many lived longer than that in the 1930’s when Social Security entered the picture. Yet medicine improved and knowledge about heart disease and the dangers of smoking increased and people took better care of themselves and began living longer.
Today, people in Western societies have far fewer children than earlier generations. Part of that is a big positive—millions of talented women are no longer housebound and are contributing mightily to virtually every profession. The problem is that they have fewer children than earlier generations so the number of workers paying into safety net programs is less relative to what it used to be. At one time, some 7.5 people were paying into Social Security for every one person receiving it. Now that number is closer to 1.5. So, in the not-too-distant future, something has to give.
Solutions would be raising income taxes and/or cutting benefits or slashing Federal spending (not to be cynical but the last suggestion is NOT going to happen). The situation is far worse in Western Europe where you have a somewhat older population and a firmly entrenched “provider state” that covers virtually all citizens.
So, the tidal wave is coming. It may appear far off. I know that I may not live to see it play out fully. Reform of government programs and spending plus a simplified and truly fair tax system are needed to deal with this issue. If not now, when?
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com or leave a message on the blog.
