Recently, I was with a group of people and someone asked, “What is the biggest problem that we face as a society.” One fellow said creeping socialism but the rest of us all said global warming or climate change. The questioner than asked what do you think is the second biggest problem? Here the answers were dispersed and included too much government spending, the Federal Reserve, income inequality, health care costs and Covid-19. When it came to my turn, ever the contrarian, I said, “how about fertility rates in the western world.” This got a big laugh and I was not able to explain myself fully. This blog post will attempt to develop the thought properly.
Somewhere, in recent years, all of you have heard or read about “The Graying of the West.” Much of Western Europe, Japan, Canada and now the United States face a possible decline in population as we go deeper in to the 21st century. This will likely develop in to a demographic tidal wave and put unsustainable strains on the social safety nets in all affected nations but especially Western Europe where the “provider state” offering some form of cradle to grave security has been in vogue for decades.
The problem that I see for the future is due to a decline in fertility rates. Simply put, if fewer people are born, then the population of a nation must become progressively older. If fewer people are of working age and many of the non-working are elderly this results in a lower consumption of goods and services which translates to a weaker economy. Of equal importance, fewer workers paying in to the Social Security and Medicare systems which will make them very unstable.
How bad is it? Well, except for sub-Saharan Africa and a few pockets around the globe, fertility rates are moving down. The statistic that most demographers look at is where a country stands relative to Zero Population Growth (ZPG). This the “replacement rate” which, in the developed Western world, rests at 2.1 per women. If you at 2.1 or above, the population will remain stable or grow. Below it and a nation is on a collision course with a cutback in services, bankruptcy, or a lower standard of living.
To put things in perspective, the fertility rates in Niger and Angola are the highest in the world at 6.91 and 5.9 respectively.
Here are rates in some countries in the developed world:
Ireland 1.93
United Kingdom 1.86
Sweden 1.86
United States 1.84
Canada 1.57
Spain 1.52
Italy 1.47
Portugal 1.42
Japan 1.38
Taiwan 1.07
Source: The World Factbook, CIA
You are probably asking what the rate is in mainland China. The country has abandoned their “one child rule” but families are not getting larger (I could not find solid numbers for China). Also, many countries around the world offer bounties for a 3rd or 4th child but they have been largely unsuccessful in moving the needle on fertility rates.
So, here is the problem that few in the media talk about in any depth. If a country wants to maintain the services that they have now but the next generation of taxpayers are not being born, then new workers (aka taxpayers) will have to be imported.
This is where I have a huge problem with politicians of both major parties in the U.S. Immigration brings benefits in that you have eager people coming to your country be it Italy, Spain, the UK or the United States who are eager to succeed and may be leaving a difficult or limiting environment. Long Term, the benefits are big and clear as the taxpayer base gets right-sided and services continue. Short term, it can affect housing, schools, and health care on a LOCAL basis and localities are ill equipped to deal with the influx of newcomers. Governments all over the globe seem to mess this up and not take national action. So, some people whip up bad feelings about immigrants not realizing that they are the ticket to a comfortable old age for many.
Canada is one exception. They actually recruit doctors, engineers and other people with special skills. Talented foreign graduate students are often put on a fast track to Canadian citizenship and the nation benefits from an influx of unusually skilled people.
Why the decline in fertility rates in the developed world? Well, people are marrying later and women who are successful in the workforce are enjoying their careers. Also, work and fewer children are an economic necessity in many if not most cases. For a tough analysis of this, may I recommend that you read SQUEEZED by Alissa Quart subtitled “Why our families can’t afford America”? (Harper Collins, 2018)
So, I see this as one of the great issues of our times. I sincerely hope that it gets more traction in the media and with the public and soon.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
