This year, in the United States, we have a presidential election. A great many comments are being made about border control in the Southwestern United States. There is no question that the situation is very messy. One issue that the media does not cover well is WHY people are wanting to come to the United States. If you look at the facts, you will see the major reason is why most of our ancestors came from Europe—economic opportunity. Also, some are coming as they live in dangerous places in Central America and want to remove their children from a bad environment.
Okay, it is a difficult issue and I see no easy workable solution at present. Looking ahead a few decades or perhaps sooner, we and much of the Western world will face a far bigger issue—Climate Migration.
If we continue on our present track toward a 3–4-degree centigrade increase in temperature, our new hotter world will likely create a nightmare scenario. Our level of carbon monoxide in the air, as of year-end 2022, was higher than it has been for the past three million years.
I looked at various forecasts that ranged from moderately scary to total gloom and doom. It was interesting to see what would be affected. In no particular order I found: Rising ocean levels would take over some areas of the Florida coast. I have noticed that even a bad rainstorm causes some flooding in Miami. The Outer Banks of North Carolina are in a precarious spot. New York City will survive, and two pundits said that the financial world will build a huge barrier protecting Southern Manhattan and, of course, Wall Street. Boston may be okay, and the Maine coast could become even more fashionable and expensive. There will be a northern movement if things heat up. Wisconsin and Minnesota have lots of lakes and people like to spend time near water. If the winters become milder there, the population might jump. A similar scenario has been forecast by some for Upstate New York and Northern New England.
Arizona and Texas already have some water issues which will only get worse as the population grows and the areas get even hotter. Agriculture will suffer as aquifers decline so food may become more expensive, and yields drop. The wheat crop should suffer as well, and government subsidies cannot help with lack of water.
Canada, along with Russia, has the world’s most abundant fresh water so, if the temperatures keep rising, Canada’s agriculture may be vibrant along with many wanting to migrate there.
Europe is already seeing many in drought stricken African countries trying to move to western countries. There are a few issues. Europe is full of senior citizens. Immigrants are needed to fill in many jobs, including caregiving to the elderly. Yet much of Western Europe is on an unsustainable path to maintain their provider state of education, healthcare, and old age pensions. How many immigrants can some countries take in?
Also, the humanitarian issue is huge. If many Africans cannot leave their parched homelands, millions may well die of disease and starvation.
South America has future climate issues although Patagonia and Southern Chile should be in better shape than the rest of the continent.
Australia is burning up these days. Some people will have to leave if climate change is not tamed. Southern New Zealand looks fine. India is in a bad spot with a huge population and no relief on the climate front. Many Pacific islands are likely to disappear.
Many politicians have lobbied hard for the use of more renewable energy. Some have said that by 2030 or 2035 all US vehicles and all electricity produced will be carbon free. They are well intentioned but hideously naïve. Right now, only a handful of U.S. utilities can meet the 2035 goal, and most have candidly told state regulators that they are pushing back their dates for a carbon free era. A big problem is with battery storage. Wind and solar technology have improved significantly in recent years, but their delivery is intermittent so a back up source such as natural gas is needed until battery development is stronger than what we have today. So, the use of fossil fuels (oil and natural gas), like it or not, is with us for some years to come. Also, electrical use will soar globally and the infrastructure is not ready to handle new demand via renewables.
Is it all hopeless? Not to me, but some hundreds of millions across the globe will need to move and what countries can/will take the migrants in? This will not be solely a political issue but a moral issue. In recent years, Canada has been very open to immigration, but they can be highly selective about whom they allow to enter their fair country. Will they take Americans who want to escape the southern heat?
So, if you think that discussing border security in the 2024 U.S. elections will be heated, may I suggest that you have not seen anything yet compared to what is to come?
For a slightly optimistic view on this issue, I recommend reading Gaia Vince’s NOMAD CENTURY (Allen Lane publishers, 2022).
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
