My friends, please forgive the provocative headline. Actually, you are NOT about to be treated to an angry rant. EVERYBODY LIES is the title of a book that I have read and re-read in recent weeks. Its author is Seth Stephens-Davidowitz. The entire title is: Everybody Lies, Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are (Day Street Books, 2017).
If you are a marketer, a media tactician, a political consultant or even a serious investor, may I suggest that this book is required reading. Much of the book covers how Big Data is getting to be a better and better forecasting tool. Seth is a very engaging writer and questions the significance of surveys using the moniker in his title of Everybody Lies. How did Trump surprise the pundits with his electoral college win? Easy, several percent of people surveyed did not want to appear politically incorrect, so they did not admit for whom they would vote. As a media researcher, I often wondered how PBS would consistently do a 2.0 rating in most Nielsen markets (DMA’s). Back in the 70’s Masterpiece Theatre probably did not really deliver Downton Abbey size ratings but people said they were watching to appear more sophisticated.
The author raises some profound issues although he does not address the advertising model directly. By looking at purchase data, a marketer has a great handle on your likes, dislikes and how you spend your time and money. Why bother with traditional media where over 90% of your audience will never be buyers? Zero in using Big Data and the marketing effort becomes infinitely more profitable. Forecasting is never easy but it has to get sharper as Big Data gives you real world information. As Winston Churchill once put it—“Facts are better than dreams.”
I will return to this topic and book a few times in the weeks and months to come. Meanwhile, take a look at EVERYBODY LIES. It is the clearest presentation of the future and usefulness of Big Data that I have seen to date.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Thursday, June 27, 2019
Wednesday, June 12, 2019
Connecting the Dots
Someone, quite young, asked me recently, if there are any advantages to getting old. I laughed but said yes, to me, there was a really big one. “These days, I am much better than ever at connecting the dots.” The young adult did not quite get what I was saying so I gave an explanation that I will now share in part with you.
As kids, we were given little games or quizzes where we had to connect the dots on a page. The resulting artwork was sometimes logical but usually messy but always fun. As the years went on, I was confronted by many problems or situations and the assignment remained to somehow find a way to “connect the dots”. In the business world “connecting the dots” usually means making logical inferences connecting items of information. Over time, most of us should have gotten better at it.
When I look at issues today in media, marketing or finance, I often conjure up the familiar refrain of “I have seen this movie before.” Business goes in cycles and while many think that something is totally new, the reality is that many things are a rehash of the past or simply packaged differently. Companies that are allegedly the next best thing get overextended financially and crash and burn. In media, the “new” is really a new platform but the idea is not novel. Also, as more players crowd in to that unique and new space, there is a big shakeout and the original players depart. Were Google and Facebook and Amazon the first in their categories? No way. Yet, they executed better and pushed out rivals who were at the party earlier.
By writing this, I am not being cynical. What I am saying is that when something seems to be the next big thing or dominant player in a category, I always take a breath and try and connect the dots in the situation. Is this truly unique? Is it capitalized properly? Is the timing in the business cycle good or terribly risky?
It is amazing how the “cannot lose” upstarts rarely make it. The backers of such enterprises are not spending enough time trying to connect the dots. Do I still get fooled? Of course! My batting average is getting better as compared to similar situations from the past. Yet, I rarely get wrapped up in the euphoria of someone’s somewhat breathless description of the next Apple or Amazon.
Mark Twain allegedly said that “History does not repeat itself but it rhymes” (Actually, some argue the saying first emerged in 1970! Twain passed on in 1910). What it means is that there are many similarities from past enterprises or events that help us predict the future. So, old folks, I cannot help you with your aches and pains. Yet, on a positive note, just remember, if you stay alert and objective, you may well connect the dots better than many half your age. Experience counts!
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
As kids, we were given little games or quizzes where we had to connect the dots on a page. The resulting artwork was sometimes logical but usually messy but always fun. As the years went on, I was confronted by many problems or situations and the assignment remained to somehow find a way to “connect the dots”. In the business world “connecting the dots” usually means making logical inferences connecting items of information. Over time, most of us should have gotten better at it.
When I look at issues today in media, marketing or finance, I often conjure up the familiar refrain of “I have seen this movie before.” Business goes in cycles and while many think that something is totally new, the reality is that many things are a rehash of the past or simply packaged differently. Companies that are allegedly the next best thing get overextended financially and crash and burn. In media, the “new” is really a new platform but the idea is not novel. Also, as more players crowd in to that unique and new space, there is a big shakeout and the original players depart. Were Google and Facebook and Amazon the first in their categories? No way. Yet, they executed better and pushed out rivals who were at the party earlier.
By writing this, I am not being cynical. What I am saying is that when something seems to be the next big thing or dominant player in a category, I always take a breath and try and connect the dots in the situation. Is this truly unique? Is it capitalized properly? Is the timing in the business cycle good or terribly risky?
It is amazing how the “cannot lose” upstarts rarely make it. The backers of such enterprises are not spending enough time trying to connect the dots. Do I still get fooled? Of course! My batting average is getting better as compared to similar situations from the past. Yet, I rarely get wrapped up in the euphoria of someone’s somewhat breathless description of the next Apple or Amazon.
Mark Twain allegedly said that “History does not repeat itself but it rhymes” (Actually, some argue the saying first emerged in 1970! Twain passed on in 1910). What it means is that there are many similarities from past enterprises or events that help us predict the future. So, old folks, I cannot help you with your aches and pains. Yet, on a positive note, just remember, if you stay alert and objective, you may well connect the dots better than many half your age. Experience counts!
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Thursday, June 6, 2019
I Am Just Being Honest
Over the years, we have all observed or been criticized by someone personally. The individual doing the attacking may see the wounded look on someone’s face or their angry response and say, “Sorry, I am just being honest.” Fair enough. Lately, I have noticed a number of millennials using the term but in a somewhat different context and I find it a bit disturbing.
Let me preface this by saying that I like millennials very much. Given economic issues plus the demographic and technology tidal waves underway, I think that they will have a tougher time making it than we American baby boomers did. I wish all of them the best.
What I find jarring is how many throw themselves under the bus with the “I am just being honest” rationalization. Here are two recent examples that happened amazingly within an hour of each other. I ran in to a student who I was to see later in the day. I asked if he was going to deliver a paper on a selected topic or take a quiz. He smiled, said he had not bothered to study, so he knocked out a brief paper in the wee hours of the morning. I froze, kept my composure and said, “Why are you telling me this?” An answer of I am submitting a paper would have been sufficient for me. He answered, “I am just being honest.” Later that day and the next, I read his paper four times. Why? I was trying to be fair. Clearly, I was annoyed and wanted to make sure that I did not give him a grade that was guided by my emotions.
Later that day, I was meeting with a group and explaining a concept using a hypothetical example. One person, sitting in the back of the room, was typing furiously on his/her laptop. I stopped my monologue and said, “You will not find the answer on line. I made this case study up as a hypothetical example. It never happened.” With a dismissive wave of the hand, the individual said, “I have not been listening to you. I am trying to order something online.” Again, my answer was “why are you telling me this?” And, you guessed it, the response was, “I am just being honest.”
Candidly, I liked both people but now I wondered how they would behave in formal business settings. Both said way too much. They did not have to lie but either saying I wrote a paper or simply stop typing would have been fine. I would never say this to them but they were not simply being honest, they were being stupid. These two cases are not isolated. I hear it all the time.
Worst case, remaining silent in those situations is a mild sin of omission. Yet, a number of people have used that term to me in recent years in similar situations and I do not understand why. All they do is make themselves look unprofessional. Would I want someone so careless working for me or representing me? Would I give them a great job reference?
There is an old phrase that has been around for generations. It is “silence is golden.” Often, I found it to be a great negotiation tool. I would make an offer via phone and then get quiet. Some 15-20 seconds would pass. The person on the other end of the line would ask if I were still there. I would say yes and then get quiet again. Most of the time, they would sweeten the offer as they were negotiating with themselves and I was giving nothing away.
My young acquaintances need to learn this lesson. Do not lead with your chin or deliberately make yourself look bad when a person needs a simple answer. Play it close to the vest when you are busted but the other person does not know it.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Let me preface this by saying that I like millennials very much. Given economic issues plus the demographic and technology tidal waves underway, I think that they will have a tougher time making it than we American baby boomers did. I wish all of them the best.
What I find jarring is how many throw themselves under the bus with the “I am just being honest” rationalization. Here are two recent examples that happened amazingly within an hour of each other. I ran in to a student who I was to see later in the day. I asked if he was going to deliver a paper on a selected topic or take a quiz. He smiled, said he had not bothered to study, so he knocked out a brief paper in the wee hours of the morning. I froze, kept my composure and said, “Why are you telling me this?” An answer of I am submitting a paper would have been sufficient for me. He answered, “I am just being honest.” Later that day and the next, I read his paper four times. Why? I was trying to be fair. Clearly, I was annoyed and wanted to make sure that I did not give him a grade that was guided by my emotions.
Later that day, I was meeting with a group and explaining a concept using a hypothetical example. One person, sitting in the back of the room, was typing furiously on his/her laptop. I stopped my monologue and said, “You will not find the answer on line. I made this case study up as a hypothetical example. It never happened.” With a dismissive wave of the hand, the individual said, “I have not been listening to you. I am trying to order something online.” Again, my answer was “why are you telling me this?” And, you guessed it, the response was, “I am just being honest.”
Candidly, I liked both people but now I wondered how they would behave in formal business settings. Both said way too much. They did not have to lie but either saying I wrote a paper or simply stop typing would have been fine. I would never say this to them but they were not simply being honest, they were being stupid. These two cases are not isolated. I hear it all the time.
Worst case, remaining silent in those situations is a mild sin of omission. Yet, a number of people have used that term to me in recent years in similar situations and I do not understand why. All they do is make themselves look unprofessional. Would I want someone so careless working for me or representing me? Would I give them a great job reference?
There is an old phrase that has been around for generations. It is “silence is golden.” Often, I found it to be a great negotiation tool. I would make an offer via phone and then get quiet. Some 15-20 seconds would pass. The person on the other end of the line would ask if I were still there. I would say yes and then get quiet again. Most of the time, they would sweeten the offer as they were negotiating with themselves and I was giving nothing away.
My young acquaintances need to learn this lesson. Do not lead with your chin or deliberately make yourself look bad when a person needs a simple answer. Play it close to the vest when you are busted but the other person does not know it.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
