These days it seems that every day I get a “gloom and doom” e-mail from someone saying how both robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) will transform our lives and kill millions of jobs within the next few years. Other messages come to me touting a certain new issue that will break through and tap in big-time to the trillions of dollars soon to be made in AI.
Do not get me wrong. I firmly believe that both robotics and AI will have significant and profound effects on our economic landscape. My issue is how fast they will develop and go completely mainstream.
Keep a few things in mind:
1) About 40+ percent of new jobs are created by small business. It will be a while for a shop with 25 or fewer people to afford the high functioning robots that major manufacturers employ. Some coffee shops are testing robotic baristas, but it will be some time before such things are widespread.
2) AI is definitely making inroads in our society. I would think that driverless trucks would be the first major job killer to hit the US economy. So, it would not be wise to be a 30-year-old long haul trucker and expect 30 more years of active service. Short haul delivery such as UPS or Amazon may also be affected but thousands of small businesses will keep their truck drivers for at least a decade. Uber and Lyft will likely go the driverless route once consumers get over initial skepticism. I would get in a test driverless Uber today and take my chances but not with my grandkids.
3) AI, in many situations, will allow companies to trim significant costs, particularly personnel and benefits, which will have great appeal to both management and shareholders.
4) One area where I think that AI will have significant and perhaps profound impact is in the advertising industry, particularly in the creative development process. Generative Artificial Intelligence, which most of you have been following closely should be a game changer in the field where many of us have toiled. This You Tube bit from a very recent CNBC segment is a wonderful introduction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKWQMOqYV-k
Finally, be VERY careful about investing in this New Age space. There are hundreds of new issues emerging and self-proclaimed market savants are touting start-up companies that are “sure” to make you rich. This reminds me of the late 1999-early 2000 cavalry charge of new internet companies. Some had no sales but raised many millions in venture capital. A few were seen on the 2000 Super Bowl and disappeared quickly.
Call me old and out of touch but I am willing to bet that only a handful of the new entries will survive the coming crunch. Also, the big guns such as Amazon, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and one or two others are investing huge amounts into these new technologies. If a few new players emerge with breakthrough applications, they will likely be bought by one or two of the existing giants who have the deepest pockets in business history.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com or leave a message on the blog.
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