Stretched Out Car Loans Will Bite Us

Last week, on October 1st, The Wall Street Journal published an excellent and much needed article on the US automobile market. It was entitled, "The Seven-Year Auto Loan: America's Middle Class Can't Afford Its Cars."

When most of our readers were younger, the standard automobile loan was three years. Not so any longer! The length of the auto loan's term has been creeping up to the point that Experian PLC, quoted in the Journal piece, now says that roughly a third of the of auto loans for new vehicles are LONGER than six years. Ten years ago, it was less than 10%.

The Journal went on to say that "Car loans that are increasingly stretched out are a pronounced sign that some American middle class buyers can't afford a middle-class lifestyle."

Another important bellwether is that many buyers of a new vehicle have not paid off their existing car. So, they do a wrap around loan that covers both cars and these are usually six years plus. Today, the average car loan is $31,119 and over 30% are rolling over the debt on the old vehicle as well.

One thing mentioned in the piece really alarmed me. Car loans are being bundled in to bonds. So what, you might ask? Well, these are really very similar products to the Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO's) that got us in to so much trouble in 2007-2009. You may recall that CDO's or Asset Backed Securities packaged up mortgages of varying quality and sold them to the public and institutions. When the housing market faltered, some weak mortgages pulled down the CDO if too many people defaulted and creditors could not be paid.

Think about this for a moment in terms of the auto market. You do not HAVE to have a house. More than a third of Americans are renters. Yet, unless you live in New York, Washington, DC and a handful of other places, you usually need a car to get to work.

Unemployment is at a 50 year low. At some point in a year or two a recession will finally hit us again. When it does, unemployment will rise and some people will be in a real bind. They will not be able to make vehicle payments and the car will be repossessed. Additionally, how do you interview for a new job or start one without an automobile? These individuals will be caught in a vicious Catch-22.

Even if the recession is mild and it likely will be quite mild compared the Great Recession of 2008-2009, several million people will lose their cars, jobs, and others will be even deeper underwater when they need to buy a new one.

The media is not covering this well. I applaud The Wall Street Journal for featuring this topic. The comments about the possible ripple effects of these long term loans and "car bonds" are mine alone.

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com