Should You Fear The Robots?

It is hard to believe but Stanley Kubrick’s “2001: The Space Odyssey” was released in 1968, some 50 years ago.  I was a freshman in college and was eager to see it as it was directed by Stanley Kubrick who a decade earlier had led “Paths of Glory”, my favorite film of all time (if you have not seen it, do so. It is remarkable and remains my favorite film). I did not quite understand the film but vividly remember people talking about HAL, the robot who at one point in the film tried to kill all the humans. Today, when I discuss either robots or Artificial Intelligence (AI) with people, HAL often comes up especially since “2001” has been re-released.

Here is my take on Artificial Intelligence(AI). The robot issue is a ruse—the real issue is the AI WITHIN the device.  Ask anyone running a business of any size and ask what is most important and they will tell you that containing or cutting costs is issue #1. The great Warren Buffett was once quoted as saying: “There are two rules in business. #1 is cut costs. #2 is don’t forget rule #1.”

Over the years, I have read and heard many comments about using robots or logarithms or algorithms to do many things but most importantly THEY CUT COSTS!. Taking a mix of comments send to me over the years, business owners have told me that robots “never get sick, never require social security or health insurance or 401k contributions, never go on coffee breaks, and are absolutely never clubhouse lawyers.” So, when people tell me that the robot revolution will never happen, I just smile. If you are running a business today, it is not easy. Something that can save you a boatload of money and reduce headaches is an approach that one is going to embrace.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has projected that today some 3.8 million Americans drive taxis, Ubers, trucks, buses and other vehicles. Within 20 years, most of these jobs can be replaced by self drive vehicles. When you tell this to people, an amazing number (over 50%) shake their heads and say that it can never happen. Believe me, it will. I hear arguments including “I like to drive and be in control. I will never give that up.” Well, if your insurance rates drop and you get place to place safely, you will likely embrace it. And, businesses will as they see costs fall and productivity and safety rates rise. I have joked with family members that when I turn 90, I will take my self drive car to the Grand Canyon by myself and perhaps a bottle of scotch (I had a scotch once in 1973, hated it, and have not had one since but I may make an exception in 2040!).

Big mining firms such as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are experimenting with self drive trucks in underground mines. Even the struggling and comparatively small Hecla Mining of Idaho has found that self drive trucks are more reliable than staff drivers. Imagine if every traffic cop in the world were relieved of traffic control and freed up to fight crime? Things might get safer and municipalities could save money.

Been to a casual restaurant lately in a major city? Increasingly, ordering is automated from a touch screen eliminating the need for many on the wait staff. We grey-beards my not like it but millennials do.  How about health car? Algorithms can spot patterns that your physician may not and diagnoses are getting sharper but there will be less need for specialists as the “robot” may do the screening.

So, here is the issue. I have averaged several studies from a wide variety of sources. Projections are that in the U.S. some 19 million jobs could be eliminated over the next 20-25 years due to all forms of AI. At the same time, the glass is half full crowd say that 21 million new jobs will be created. They talk of “cobots” that are collaborative robots that will work side by side with humans. Great! I just do not see how more jobs can be created out of this AI growth. If you are not well educated or motivated, you may a very uncertain future. To survive, many businesses will have to hop aboard the AI train as it is leaving the station or be noncompetitive moving forward.

Don’t get me wrong. As doors have closed on me due to changes, several more have always opened. I do not see this happening for people across the board in the future. We do not need to fear HAL literally killing us. But young people need to stay flexible and on top of things. The world will change faster than many realize.

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com