If you have been in business a while or simply lived a long time ( I have done both), you realize that most things be they new products, new companies, new restaurants, new ideas do not succeed. If you study the habits of entrepreneurs you find that successful ones make it on the 3rd or 4th try. They appear to be wired differently than most people and do not see failures as conclusive but merely a learning experience and they move on to the next adventure.
One thing that I have observed and experienced, and often hear a lot from MR readers is that it appears that most people do not want you to succeed. It has always struck me as odd especially in certain circumstances. Over the years, I was involved in hundreds of new business presentations. People would always grill me afterwards and asked how I thought it went and whether or not the firm that I was associated with would get the business. I would always say how I thought the presentation went but, after I left my 20’s, I never said whether we would get the business or not. People would gloat if you were wrong and it was always hard to forecast. Once I was a lead player in a pitch and really nailed it. When I returned to the office, people asked me what I thought and, very uncharacteristically, said “we have it. I am sure.” The most eager person with the questions seemed deflated and said “Cole, you are awfully sure of yourself.” Forty eight hours later they called and assigned us the account. My colleague walked around morosely for a few days. I was confused. Why should he be jealous? He, too, was a partner in the firm and would benefit from the increased billing.
Months later, a third colleague really burned the midnight oils and, against stiff odds, landed a nice account. When I saw him, I thanked him and gave him a big hug. My colleague who was displeased with my win months earlier, chimed in, “Yeah, congratulations.” Later that day, he called me aside and asked “Why did you hug that bastard?” I responded that the firm would be better off with the new business and our associate had worked very hard to bring it in to the shop.
When I asked some panelists about this issue, I expected mild responses. Nope. Here are some verbatim (expletives deleted plus some modest editing) comments:
—“The only one who was ever happy with any success I have had is my spouse. Even people that I made a lot of money for did not seem grateful. I was no threat to them especially when young but they seemed ill at ease when I succeeded.”
—“I am a serial entrepreneur. My losses are far more frequent than my gains. People still dredge up my failures at dinner or cocktail parties and out on the golf course. I am rich now and they are really jealous. None of them ever took a real chance. I try to avoid them but I live in a small city and they pop up at any large gathering. “
—“I can’t stand the armchair dreamers who sit around and tell me what I did wrong. They were not still at the office at 9pm and you never saw them on weekends. When I was young, a few would come to me after a loss and want to do a post mortem telling me what I did wrong. They were high on criticism but never got off their asses and tried to broaden their horizons. You never strike out if you never get in the game!”
—"I have been a salesman for 35 years. When I landed an account that others had tried to crack for years, New York (headquarters) was happy. My boss and fellow foot soldiers rarely had any sincere praise. They were jealous, I suppose. One boss told me that the only reason I was able to get billing was that he had softened them up for years. Maybe so, but it was a rotten thing to say after my first big win.”
We live in an age of envy. If you win when others lose or merely sit on the sidelines, there will be inevitable resentment. May I suggest that you wrap yourself up in entrepreneurial mode and go out and change the world?
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Thursday, August 16, 2018
Friday, August 10, 2018
Should You Fear The Robots?
It is hard to believe but Stanley Kubrick’s “2001: The Space Odyssey” was released in 1968, some 50 years ago. I was a freshman in college and was eager to see it as it was directed by Stanley Kubrick who a decade earlier had led “Paths of Glory”, my favorite film of all time (if you have not seen it, do so. It is remarkable and remains my favorite film). I did not quite understand the film but vividly remember people talking about HAL, the robot who at one point in the film tried to kill all the humans. Today, when I discuss either robots or Artificial Intelligence (AI) with people, HAL often comes up especially since “2001” has been re-released.
Here is my take on Artificial Intelligence(AI). The robot issue is a ruse—the real issue is the AI WITHIN the device. Ask anyone running a business of any size and ask what is most important and they will tell you that containing or cutting costs is issue #1. The great Warren Buffett was once quoted as saying: “There are two rules in business. #1 is cut costs. #2 is don’t forget rule #1.”
Over the years, I have read and heard many comments about using robots or logarithms or algorithms to do many things but most importantly THEY CUT COSTS!. Taking a mix of comments send to me over the years, business owners have told me that robots “never get sick, never require social security or health insurance or 401k contributions, never go on coffee breaks, and are absolutely never clubhouse lawyers.” So, when people tell me that the robot revolution will never happen, I just smile. If you are running a business today, it is not easy. Something that can save you a boatload of money and reduce headaches is an approach that one is going to embrace.
The U.S. Department of Commerce has projected that today some 3.8 million Americans drive taxis, Ubers, trucks, buses and other vehicles. Within 20 years, most of these jobs can be replaced by self drive vehicles. When you tell this to people, an amazing number (over 50%) shake their heads and say that it can never happen. Believe me, it will. I hear arguments including “I like to drive and be in control. I will never give that up.” Well, if your insurance rates drop and you get place to place safely, you will likely embrace it. And, businesses will as they see costs fall and productivity and safety rates rise. I have joked with family members that when I turn 90, I will take my self drive car to the Grand Canyon by myself and perhaps a bottle of scotch (I had a scotch once in 1973, hated it, and have not had one since but I may make an exception in 2040!).
Big mining firms such as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are experimenting with self drive trucks in underground mines. Even the struggling and comparatively small Hecla Mining of Idaho has found that self drive trucks are more reliable than staff drivers. Imagine if every traffic cop in the world were relieved of traffic control and freed up to fight crime? Things might get safer and municipalities could save money.
Been to a casual restaurant lately in a major city? Increasingly, ordering is automated from a touch screen eliminating the need for many on the wait staff. We grey-beards my not like it but millennials do. How about health car? Algorithms can spot patterns that your physician may not and diagnoses are getting sharper but there will be less need for specialists as the “robot” may do the screening.
So, here is the issue. I have averaged several studies from a wide variety of sources. Projections are that in the U.S. some 19 million jobs could be eliminated over the next 20-25 years due to all forms of AI. At the same time, the glass is half full crowd say that 21 million new jobs will be created. They talk of “cobots” that are collaborative robots that will work side by side with humans. Great! I just do not see how more jobs can be created out of this AI growth. If you are not well educated or motivated, you may a very uncertain future. To survive, many businesses will have to hop aboard the AI train as it is leaving the station or be noncompetitive moving forward.
Don’t get me wrong. As doors have closed on me due to changes, several more have always opened. I do not see this happening for people across the board in the future. We do not need to fear HAL literally killing us. But young people need to stay flexible and on top of things. The world will change faster than many realize.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Here is my take on Artificial Intelligence(AI). The robot issue is a ruse—the real issue is the AI WITHIN the device. Ask anyone running a business of any size and ask what is most important and they will tell you that containing or cutting costs is issue #1. The great Warren Buffett was once quoted as saying: “There are two rules in business. #1 is cut costs. #2 is don’t forget rule #1.”
Over the years, I have read and heard many comments about using robots or logarithms or algorithms to do many things but most importantly THEY CUT COSTS!. Taking a mix of comments send to me over the years, business owners have told me that robots “never get sick, never require social security or health insurance or 401k contributions, never go on coffee breaks, and are absolutely never clubhouse lawyers.” So, when people tell me that the robot revolution will never happen, I just smile. If you are running a business today, it is not easy. Something that can save you a boatload of money and reduce headaches is an approach that one is going to embrace.
The U.S. Department of Commerce has projected that today some 3.8 million Americans drive taxis, Ubers, trucks, buses and other vehicles. Within 20 years, most of these jobs can be replaced by self drive vehicles. When you tell this to people, an amazing number (over 50%) shake their heads and say that it can never happen. Believe me, it will. I hear arguments including “I like to drive and be in control. I will never give that up.” Well, if your insurance rates drop and you get place to place safely, you will likely embrace it. And, businesses will as they see costs fall and productivity and safety rates rise. I have joked with family members that when I turn 90, I will take my self drive car to the Grand Canyon by myself and perhaps a bottle of scotch (I had a scotch once in 1973, hated it, and have not had one since but I may make an exception in 2040!).
Big mining firms such as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are experimenting with self drive trucks in underground mines. Even the struggling and comparatively small Hecla Mining of Idaho has found that self drive trucks are more reliable than staff drivers. Imagine if every traffic cop in the world were relieved of traffic control and freed up to fight crime? Things might get safer and municipalities could save money.
Been to a casual restaurant lately in a major city? Increasingly, ordering is automated from a touch screen eliminating the need for many on the wait staff. We grey-beards my not like it but millennials do. How about health car? Algorithms can spot patterns that your physician may not and diagnoses are getting sharper but there will be less need for specialists as the “robot” may do the screening.
So, here is the issue. I have averaged several studies from a wide variety of sources. Projections are that in the U.S. some 19 million jobs could be eliminated over the next 20-25 years due to all forms of AI. At the same time, the glass is half full crowd say that 21 million new jobs will be created. They talk of “cobots” that are collaborative robots that will work side by side with humans. Great! I just do not see how more jobs can be created out of this AI growth. If you are not well educated or motivated, you may a very uncertain future. To survive, many businesses will have to hop aboard the AI train as it is leaving the station or be noncompetitive moving forward.
Don’t get me wrong. As doors have closed on me due to changes, several more have always opened. I do not see this happening for people across the board in the future. We do not need to fear HAL literally killing us. But young people need to stay flexible and on top of things. The world will change faster than many realize.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Saturday, August 4, 2018
The US Consumer Debt Bomb
Those of you who know me are aware that I am something of a data junkie. I love to crunch numbers and look for trends. For years, I have worried about growing debt levels. Currently, the US government debt stands at approximately $21 trillion dollars. Few want to discuss that and I realize it is not exactly comparable to personal consumer debt. After all, the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency so, at times, we can print money to cover expenses and get away with it for a surprisingly long period of time.
Recently, the Federal Reserve released updated figures on household debt in the United States. The headline was that total household debt in the United States was projected to be $13.15 trillion. That certainly got my attention!
As any media strategist should be, I am something of a part-time demographer. So, I wanted to see how the debt was arrayed against different age groups in America. Results were a bit surprising and as follows:
Demographic Average Household Debt
Under 35 $67,400
35-44 133,100
45-54. 134,600
55-64 108,300
65-74. 66,000
75+. 34,500
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2018
A few issues popped out. The under 35 group was burdened by college loans. The average person owed $19,000 but often both husband and wife owe so the household college debt can be much higher. This debt is preventing many millennials from buying their first home nearly as early as their parents did. The 35-64 demos were about what I anticipated. People have mortgages and college bills plus notes on cars at that time of their lives. The surprise was 65-74 year olds and the 75+ demo. I assumed that it was for car loans. Nope. Many still had mortgage payments. Banks cheerfully write long term mortgages for people of any age if they qualify. Admittedly, some upscale 65-74 have mortgage debt on second homes.
Why bother to bring this up? Well, the Great Recession or financial crisis began to take hold in earnest a decade ago. Once we struggled through 2009, many people said something like this to me—“People have learned their lesson. Look ahead 10 years. Millions will have cleaned up their personal balance sheets and will never get themselves in such a bad situation again.” Looking at the above data, I see that my friends were wrong. Household debt continues to grow. A rebounding real estate market did get many out of upside down mortgages (mortgage balance higher than current value of residence) but the overall debt levels continue to churn ahead.
Credit card debt continues to be annoyingly high. Again, the surprises came among those 65+. Here is the average revolving credit card balance by age group:
Under 35 $5,808
34-44 8,235
45-54 9,096
55-64 8,158
65-69 6,876
70-74 6,468
75+ 5,638
I was quite taken by surprise that the average 75+ household with credit card debt owed $5,638!
So, despite our recent very solid growth of GDP of 4.1% for the last quarter, things are not so rosy for many people when you dig a bit. Are people borrowing more to purchase things and keep our 70+% consumer driven economy chugging along? It would appear so. An acquaintance dropped me an e-mail recently and said that he stole this line but uses it in meetings—“If you think the retail apocalypse is exaggerated, wait until the next recession comes along. People will not be able to meet their debt payments and storefronts will close all over America.”
So, what does this mean for the world of media? Even if my gloomy friend quoted is not entirely correct, it would appear that debt service will dig even deeper into discretionary income. So, people will likely watch more video as a result. You may cut the cord on cable but keep your Netflix subscription. Will you do without Amazon Prime? Probably not. So, Amazon Prime Video will take up more and more of your video viewing. HBO could grow stronger depending on what new owner AT&T does with it. And free You Tube will be cost effective for very inexpensive entertainment.
The world is not coming to an end. But when over 40 percent of Americans cannot handle a $400 car repair bill or trip to the emergency room, something has to give at some point.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Recently, the Federal Reserve released updated figures on household debt in the United States. The headline was that total household debt in the United States was projected to be $13.15 trillion. That certainly got my attention!
As any media strategist should be, I am something of a part-time demographer. So, I wanted to see how the debt was arrayed against different age groups in America. Results were a bit surprising and as follows:
Demographic Average Household Debt
Under 35 $67,400
35-44 133,100
45-54. 134,600
55-64 108,300
65-74. 66,000
75+. 34,500
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2018
A few issues popped out. The under 35 group was burdened by college loans. The average person owed $19,000 but often both husband and wife owe so the household college debt can be much higher. This debt is preventing many millennials from buying their first home nearly as early as their parents did. The 35-64 demos were about what I anticipated. People have mortgages and college bills plus notes on cars at that time of their lives. The surprise was 65-74 year olds and the 75+ demo. I assumed that it was for car loans. Nope. Many still had mortgage payments. Banks cheerfully write long term mortgages for people of any age if they qualify. Admittedly, some upscale 65-74 have mortgage debt on second homes.
Why bother to bring this up? Well, the Great Recession or financial crisis began to take hold in earnest a decade ago. Once we struggled through 2009, many people said something like this to me—“People have learned their lesson. Look ahead 10 years. Millions will have cleaned up their personal balance sheets and will never get themselves in such a bad situation again.” Looking at the above data, I see that my friends were wrong. Household debt continues to grow. A rebounding real estate market did get many out of upside down mortgages (mortgage balance higher than current value of residence) but the overall debt levels continue to churn ahead.
Credit card debt continues to be annoyingly high. Again, the surprises came among those 65+. Here is the average revolving credit card balance by age group:
Under 35 $5,808
34-44 8,235
45-54 9,096
55-64 8,158
65-69 6,876
70-74 6,468
75+ 5,638
I was quite taken by surprise that the average 75+ household with credit card debt owed $5,638!
So, despite our recent very solid growth of GDP of 4.1% for the last quarter, things are not so rosy for many people when you dig a bit. Are people borrowing more to purchase things and keep our 70+% consumer driven economy chugging along? It would appear so. An acquaintance dropped me an e-mail recently and said that he stole this line but uses it in meetings—“If you think the retail apocalypse is exaggerated, wait until the next recession comes along. People will not be able to meet their debt payments and storefronts will close all over America.”
So, what does this mean for the world of media? Even if my gloomy friend quoted is not entirely correct, it would appear that debt service will dig even deeper into discretionary income. So, people will likely watch more video as a result. You may cut the cord on cable but keep your Netflix subscription. Will you do without Amazon Prime? Probably not. So, Amazon Prime Video will take up more and more of your video viewing. HBO could grow stronger depending on what new owner AT&T does with it. And free You Tube will be cost effective for very inexpensive entertainment.
The world is not coming to an end. But when over 40 percent of Americans cannot handle a $400 car repair bill or trip to the emergency room, something has to give at some point.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
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