Not quite five years ago, two well thought of academics, Anne Case and Angus Deaton, published a paper with perhaps the most downbeat title ever: “Rising Morbidity and Mortality In Midlife Among White Non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st Century.” It was published in a scientific journal with the catchy name of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. I know, my dear readers, that many of you are envious of me, but seeing clearly how I spend my time must make you even more jealous. I can almost hear you saying to yourselves, “why can’t my life be as exciting as Don’s?”
The prose did not read like a best selling novel. Yet, if you fought your way through it, as I did, there was some sad and startling information. What leapt off the pages was that from 1999-2014 there had been a significant increase in the death rate of white Americans of middle age. It almost seemed un-American to many at first blush. Historically, each American generation had thrived relative to the previous one and improvements in medicine had lengthened life spans.
To oversimplify, the authors attributed the rise to what they dubbed “deaths of despair”—an increase in drug and alcohol related deaths, suicides, and cirrhosis of the liver. Prior to 1999, deaths among 45-54 year old men were falling in the U.S. almost totally in line with other “wealthy” nations around the globe. Since 1999, they have taken a U-turn and gone upward. Also, and importantly, deaths of African-Americans and Hispanic Americans among the same age group in the U.S. are almost perfectly in line with the global trends NOT those of U.S. white males of the same age.
So, what was and sadly still is going on?
Deaton and Case drilled down in to the numbers and found that the large majority of the deaths were among Men without a college education. Fifty years ago, poorly educated men in the U.S. lived only five years less than high income men of the same generation. Now, the gap is an eye-popping 15 years. A British columnist put it this way in October, 2016—“Dying half a generation sooner than you might have is bad enough. Expecting to die younger than your parents is worse. It goes against what Westerners in general, and Americans in particular, have taken for granted.” *
Some have put the finger on growing inequality. Labor unions are much weaker than 50 years ago and we have a post industrial economy centered on services and information which do not make skills of many blue collar workers financially fit. So, the American working class in in decline and Artificial Intelligence can only make it worse. Some forecasters are projecting that within 15 years some 2.5 million truck drivers will lose their jobs as self drive vehicles become widespread. Driving a truck provided a fine income for many without a college degree. Political analysts say that Donald Trump’s upset victory in the electoral college in 2016 was due to his ability to tap in the frustration and even desperation of the middle aged- middle class who felt that they are being left behind. The work of Deaton and Case seem to put the light on that political narrative really well.
What can be done? Well, for my entire adult life politicians talk about job re-training for displaced persons due to technological growth. I have seen little in that arena that is meaningful. Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang suggests a minimum guaranteed income for all as Big Data and Artificial intelligence sweep away millions of jobs in the years to come. That does not strike me as politically viable or healthy for a lot of people given the opioid and alcohol use that Deaton and Case found among the premature deaths.
The other argument is that we can simply grow our way out of it? I have heard this argument used regarding our massive budget deficits in the U.S. That might work if we did not continue to increase spending but politicians lack the will to get draconian. A bigger problem with the issue of growth leveling inequality is that to me it has very little to do with it. A growing economy is fine but it does not reveal a damn thing about how that newfound wealth is being distributed. And, as I have often written in this space, there is always going to be inequality in a free market model although perhaps not as extreme as we are seeing today.
In 1962, Jack Kennedy, trying to sell a tax cut to Congress and the public, said, “A rising tide lifts all boats.” He was wrong then and he would be wrong now. This generation of middle aged men unmasked in the Deaton and Case report is discouraged and increasingly feeling forgotten and their future prospects look pretty awful. Turning around their lives is a big problem that we, as a nation, must deal with. There is no evidence that the situation has turned around in the last five years. It may get a terrible spike as we struggle through the Covid 19 pandemic as well.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
* Edward Luce, Financial Times, 10/9/16
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