Way back in 1995, I was doing some unusual things for a media executive. One issue was that I was helping to take some infomercial marketers from Direct Response TV (DRTV) to retail. They were a motley crew of Runyonesque characters but for 18 months or so they broke up the monotony of discussing Reach & Frequency estimates or the pattern of frequency distributions with conventional marketers perhaps far more bored than I. One day, my favorite infomercial guy called me and we had a long talk. He said something very interesting. Apparently, his call center was getting jammed with calls at certain times from people inquiring how his gadget worked. So, he started sending videos of his informercial in with every DRTV sale. Magically, sales continued to grow and the phone only rang a fraction as much as it did a few weeks earlier. He said he planned to do that permanently. I laughed and said it sounded great but told him the TV billing that we did for him might plummet (It did!). My friend asked me what this kind of advertising he was doing and I said it reminded me of an article that I had read recently. I told him that he could call it “content marketing.”
Well, a lot of things have happened since 1995. And, content marketing, truly novel then even when discussed in a package, still has a very nice future. Why? There are a few reasons from my perspective and they are:
1) People watch videos and they like them! Stuck too much at home during this horrendous pandemic. I bet that Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and perhaps Disney + is getting a lot attention from you. Some prognosticators have fragmentary research that says online video viewing is up more than 50% in the last 24 months. It may be a lot higher over the last 90 days.
2) I am an outlier in that I read all the time. Most people do not but their preference for getting information tends to be with videos. They keep their attention, educate in many cases and are considered entertaining. Two recent studies indicate that people learn about a product through word of mouth to a large degree but two thirds say that, all things being equal, they would prefer videos. A textual description only gets the stamp of approval from 18-20%.
3) The track record for videos is strong. Nearly 90% of marketers say that embedding a video in an e-mail increases website traffic significantly. Also, the “pass-along” audience is very solid. It appears that people may not forward a verbal product story to a friend, associate or relative but they will if it is a short video.
4) Videos appear to turbo-charge e-mail marketing. What triggered me to post this is that in recent months, a few readers have contacted me and stated that their e-mail blasts are getting diminishing returns. To a person, none have used a video. In a world where we use FaceTime, What’s App, and Skype with friends, relatives and business associates, a simple video in the mix can certainly help. Amazingly, people are not doing it some 25 years after my friend stumbled upon it.
If this post seems mundane, too bad. Sometimes, people ignore the simple blocking and tackling that all marketers need to do.
Should you wish to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Saturday, July 25, 2020
Saturday, July 18, 2020
The Aging Tsunami
So people just will not let go. For a few decades, I have beat the drum saying that essentially “Demographics are Destiny.” Recently, as I was updating some figures, I went back and forth with someone whom I have known for many years. When I told him what I was working on he snapped, “So, Don. You are going to tell me that Republicans are finished as all young people are Democrats and all senior citizens are members of the GOP.” I paused and counted to 50. No, all of any group does not believe to a particular political persuasion. Ronald Reagan, for example, was very popular with young voters as president.
Studying demographics has to be a key factor for all for are marketers or members of the investment class. To me, demographics are a steady and relentless tidal wave that are headed right at the western world. Can they be shifted a bit? On paper, it seems possible but it has not gotten much traction in the real world. Countries as widespread as Singapore and France have provided bounties to families who had more children but the programs have not shifted birthrates with any significance.
So, why bother to study the topic? It is an excellent, and some say the best, long term forecasting tool. Consider this—United State population growth has slowed to the lowest level in 80 years. The under 18 population is actually lower than it was in 2010 when our last formal U.S. census was taken. Many pundits saw the birthrate decline beginning in 2007 and shrugged saying that it was due to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Well, the birthrate has not snapped back. The U.S. fertility rate is now the lowest in history. And, a survey on family growth recently found that more than half of U.S. Women with one child said that they would not be having another.
You have all heard of Zero Population Growth (ZPG). Women are now having their first child at 27. When I was in college, it was 21. America is now below ZPG (2.1 children) so we cannot replace our existing population. We have now joined most of Western Europe as a rapidly aging society. Census adjusted figures indicate that US residents under 18 have fallen about 1% since 2010 but those over 55 have moved up 8 percent. The New England states and parts of the industrial midwest are getting older the fastest.
Another factoid has come to the fore which surprised me. The mobility of Americans are at a historic low. I understand it now during the Covid 19 pandemic but even before this crisis, people were not moving for jobs as much. Perhaps the high cost of living is keeping people out of San Francisco, Seattle, Boston and New York even though that is where the super high paying jobs are.
What does all of this mean? The math is scary. Our health care system is buckling at present due to the pandemic but what about 30 years from now? How can we keep the current Social Security system going (fewer people paying in and more taking out) not to mention Medicare/Medicaid and some provisions for senior housing? Estimates say that the shortfall for these items is as low as $70 trillion up to $210 trillion. Can these relatively few young bail out us greybeards? The math does not work. We will need reform in entitlements and higher taxes. And, we cannot grow our way out of demographic shifts.
One answer is heightened immigration but that tends to be a tinderbox political issue with many Americans who sadly do not realize that we are a nation of immigrants and young hard working immigrants could really help bail us out of this mess.
Villages in the Great Plains are becoming ghost towns and the trend is showing no signs of slowing down. What happens to small isolated towns when the few youngsters move away and schools close and the nearest doctor is 40 miles away? These are issues that are upon us.
So, the future demographics of the US and Western Europe are nearly set in stone. People who dismiss it as a political hot button miss the point. It will affect the media world, the marketing world, healthcare and stunt economic growth if it considers on its current path.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Studying demographics has to be a key factor for all for are marketers or members of the investment class. To me, demographics are a steady and relentless tidal wave that are headed right at the western world. Can they be shifted a bit? On paper, it seems possible but it has not gotten much traction in the real world. Countries as widespread as Singapore and France have provided bounties to families who had more children but the programs have not shifted birthrates with any significance.
So, why bother to study the topic? It is an excellent, and some say the best, long term forecasting tool. Consider this—United State population growth has slowed to the lowest level in 80 years. The under 18 population is actually lower than it was in 2010 when our last formal U.S. census was taken. Many pundits saw the birthrate decline beginning in 2007 and shrugged saying that it was due to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Well, the birthrate has not snapped back. The U.S. fertility rate is now the lowest in history. And, a survey on family growth recently found that more than half of U.S. Women with one child said that they would not be having another.
You have all heard of Zero Population Growth (ZPG). Women are now having their first child at 27. When I was in college, it was 21. America is now below ZPG (2.1 children) so we cannot replace our existing population. We have now joined most of Western Europe as a rapidly aging society. Census adjusted figures indicate that US residents under 18 have fallen about 1% since 2010 but those over 55 have moved up 8 percent. The New England states and parts of the industrial midwest are getting older the fastest.
Another factoid has come to the fore which surprised me. The mobility of Americans are at a historic low. I understand it now during the Covid 19 pandemic but even before this crisis, people were not moving for jobs as much. Perhaps the high cost of living is keeping people out of San Francisco, Seattle, Boston and New York even though that is where the super high paying jobs are.
What does all of this mean? The math is scary. Our health care system is buckling at present due to the pandemic but what about 30 years from now? How can we keep the current Social Security system going (fewer people paying in and more taking out) not to mention Medicare/Medicaid and some provisions for senior housing? Estimates say that the shortfall for these items is as low as $70 trillion up to $210 trillion. Can these relatively few young bail out us greybeards? The math does not work. We will need reform in entitlements and higher taxes. And, we cannot grow our way out of demographic shifts.
One answer is heightened immigration but that tends to be a tinderbox political issue with many Americans who sadly do not realize that we are a nation of immigrants and young hard working immigrants could really help bail us out of this mess.
Villages in the Great Plains are becoming ghost towns and the trend is showing no signs of slowing down. What happens to small isolated towns when the few youngsters move away and schools close and the nearest doctor is 40 miles away? These are issues that are upon us.
So, the future demographics of the US and Western Europe are nearly set in stone. People who dismiss it as a political hot button miss the point. It will affect the media world, the marketing world, healthcare and stunt economic growth if it considers on its current path.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Saturday, July 11, 2020
Mediocrity is the Enemy
A long time ago, I was about to graduate from college. I went to say goodbye and thank a man who had encouraged me and mentored me for two years. It was very pleasant and, as we were wrapping up, I asked if he had any advice for me. He said he did not like to give life advice but I persisted. “Okay, Don. Here it is. Don’t live a mediocre life.” Surprised, I promised him that I would try not to. He got a bit stern and said, “Don’t be mediocre. Most of us are.” I did not think a lot about it but, as I have gotten older, I see what he was telling me.
Let’s face it. Most of us do live mediocre lives. We get up each day and go to a job that pays the bills but we do not really love it. In many cases, we are “underemployed” and spend our days doing tasks below our skill level. We never have an impact on our industry or community and more damning, we never achieve our dreams. People start talking about living for the weekends and vacations. They have effectively given up and I have heard them refer to themselves as survivors. It is sad but normal. And, some of them are not even 40 years old.
I have observed a lot of mediocre people and see a dreary sameness to how they spend their free time. They watch too much TV, party a lot, or escape in to a ridiculous obsession with sports. They also (sadly) have certain things in common:
1) They never think big. Not mindless daydreaming of winning the lottery but they have no life plan. They do not live life—it happens to them. And, they wind up bitter.
2) They rarely take thought out and calculated risks.
3) They surround themselves with people who have the same fears of unemployment or winding up broke and with few friends.
So, my young friends out there, may I offer the following advice that I was given. Don’t live a mediocre life. Look at your environment. Are you friends and family holding you back? Do those close to you tell you that you are lazy or not good enough? Do you go to the same websites all the time? Are you in a comfortable rut? Maybe that is a large part of what is holding you back. Remember the old adage—“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always gotten.” A cliche, yes. That does not mean that it is not true.
Most advertising is mediocre. Did you notice now how a good commercial stops you in your tracks even in this age of commercial avoidance? Most people are mediocre at their jobs, most Americans of a certain age are overweight, others are close to broke after a lifetime of work but hurt by bad decisions. If you really care about your life, then you should be insulted if you consider yourself to be mediocre. If something is REALLY important to you, you will find a way to change.
Warren Buffett tells graduate students to not “go sleepwalking through life.” That was what my economics mentor was trying to tell me. Find your passion, follow it, and your life will be anything but mediocre.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Let’s face it. Most of us do live mediocre lives. We get up each day and go to a job that pays the bills but we do not really love it. In many cases, we are “underemployed” and spend our days doing tasks below our skill level. We never have an impact on our industry or community and more damning, we never achieve our dreams. People start talking about living for the weekends and vacations. They have effectively given up and I have heard them refer to themselves as survivors. It is sad but normal. And, some of them are not even 40 years old.
I have observed a lot of mediocre people and see a dreary sameness to how they spend their free time. They watch too much TV, party a lot, or escape in to a ridiculous obsession with sports. They also (sadly) have certain things in common:
1) They never think big. Not mindless daydreaming of winning the lottery but they have no life plan. They do not live life—it happens to them. And, they wind up bitter.
2) They rarely take thought out and calculated risks.
3) They surround themselves with people who have the same fears of unemployment or winding up broke and with few friends.
So, my young friends out there, may I offer the following advice that I was given. Don’t live a mediocre life. Look at your environment. Are you friends and family holding you back? Do those close to you tell you that you are lazy or not good enough? Do you go to the same websites all the time? Are you in a comfortable rut? Maybe that is a large part of what is holding you back. Remember the old adage—“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always gotten.” A cliche, yes. That does not mean that it is not true.
Most advertising is mediocre. Did you notice now how a good commercial stops you in your tracks even in this age of commercial avoidance? Most people are mediocre at their jobs, most Americans of a certain age are overweight, others are close to broke after a lifetime of work but hurt by bad decisions. If you really care about your life, then you should be insulted if you consider yourself to be mediocre. If something is REALLY important to you, you will find a way to change.
Warren Buffett tells graduate students to not “go sleepwalking through life.” That was what my economics mentor was trying to tell me. Find your passion, follow it, and your life will be anything but mediocre.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Saturday, July 4, 2020
Imposter Syndrome
Happy Birthday, United States.
Virtually all of us at some point in our careers suffer briefly or significantly from what psychologists often refer to as “Imposter Syndrome.” We may fear that we are not good enough or do not belong in our job or be the person to give a major presentation to a big client or to an industry forum. This often triggers a great deal of anxiety—some people freeze and procrastinate while others bury themselves in work and then their lives get way out of balance. Over the years, many people came to me about it especially before a major event or on taking a new job. Here are some things that I suggested to them:
1) Stop beating yourself up—most of the time, when you present to a group, you are THE expert in the room (it can get tricky at industry gatherings) and, if you have prepared properly, you should be able to field questions and make a favorable impression. Also, make a list of questions that could be asked and prepare answers so, from the floor, you look on top of your game.
2) Look at real evidence—pull out your resume. Is it all true? Then you should have some confidence about what you are doing. Think of your past successes. Did bosses or clients ever pay your compliments in writing? Re-read them. You are not a fraud.
3) Share your fear with friends is what many tell you to do. I would be VERY careful about that. If you do, make sure it is someone NOT connected to your business or someday it may be used against you. If you want to keep a secret, tell no one has always been my mantra. Sometimes people will slip and tell your fears to others with no malicious intent but it can come back to haunt you. I was flattered when people told me of their fears and I tried to encourage them but it stopped with me permanently.
4) Discount outside sources—people would tell me that they were where they were due to 100% luck. Maybe, if Mom or Dad owned the business but usually you were in the job you have or given a major assignment due to your abilities. There is no question that being in the right place at the right time happens but you still have to prove yourself.
What about the famous advice of “fake it until you make it”? I have very mixed feelings about that. If you are nervous or awkward socially, then stepping outside yourself and exuding some confidence can be quite beneficial both personally and professionally. Yet, at times, I have seem too many people confuse confidence with competence. Clearly actions can follow feelings but you still have to know your stuff. With some people there is a blurry line between confidence and lies.
About 20 years ago, a media salesperson asked me to attend a meeting with a foreigner who was going to launch a service in the United States. He had a wonderful British accent and made a fairly interesting case for getting Angel investors such as my friend and others present to get on board as financial backers. With him, was a wildly ebullient young fellow who said that he was an investment banker. He took a fair part in the Q&A session after the pitch deck was reviewed. Then, he said that after a brief launch in the states, shares would be available to the general public. I innocently asked if they had plans to issue ADR’s or perhaps an ADS? The young man got flustered and told me that I was not fair and that I was using some new financial term to embarrass him. “When did these ADR’s come in to the stock market”?, he asked. “Last week?” With a soft smile, I answered, “1927.” Getting red in the face, he asked how long that I been buying them. “Since 1973”, was my reply. Clearly, the young guy was trying to fake it until he made it. Not that day, and my friend and his associates saved their money. I followed up for a few years and the fledgling company never saw the light of day in the United States. Were they con-men? Hard to say for sure but the young “investment banker” did not pass the smell test.
Finally, the best advice for defeating Imposter Syndrome that I have seen was in Dr. Gay Hendricks book, THE BIG LEAP. The good doctor wrote, “ The things you most love to do reflect your unique abilities. When you are doing what you are really meant to be doing, you don’t have to generate self doubt.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
Virtually all of us at some point in our careers suffer briefly or significantly from what psychologists often refer to as “Imposter Syndrome.” We may fear that we are not good enough or do not belong in our job or be the person to give a major presentation to a big client or to an industry forum. This often triggers a great deal of anxiety—some people freeze and procrastinate while others bury themselves in work and then their lives get way out of balance. Over the years, many people came to me about it especially before a major event or on taking a new job. Here are some things that I suggested to them:
1) Stop beating yourself up—most of the time, when you present to a group, you are THE expert in the room (it can get tricky at industry gatherings) and, if you have prepared properly, you should be able to field questions and make a favorable impression. Also, make a list of questions that could be asked and prepare answers so, from the floor, you look on top of your game.
2) Look at real evidence—pull out your resume. Is it all true? Then you should have some confidence about what you are doing. Think of your past successes. Did bosses or clients ever pay your compliments in writing? Re-read them. You are not a fraud.
3) Share your fear with friends is what many tell you to do. I would be VERY careful about that. If you do, make sure it is someone NOT connected to your business or someday it may be used against you. If you want to keep a secret, tell no one has always been my mantra. Sometimes people will slip and tell your fears to others with no malicious intent but it can come back to haunt you. I was flattered when people told me of their fears and I tried to encourage them but it stopped with me permanently.
4) Discount outside sources—people would tell me that they were where they were due to 100% luck. Maybe, if Mom or Dad owned the business but usually you were in the job you have or given a major assignment due to your abilities. There is no question that being in the right place at the right time happens but you still have to prove yourself.
What about the famous advice of “fake it until you make it”? I have very mixed feelings about that. If you are nervous or awkward socially, then stepping outside yourself and exuding some confidence can be quite beneficial both personally and professionally. Yet, at times, I have seem too many people confuse confidence with competence. Clearly actions can follow feelings but you still have to know your stuff. With some people there is a blurry line between confidence and lies.
About 20 years ago, a media salesperson asked me to attend a meeting with a foreigner who was going to launch a service in the United States. He had a wonderful British accent and made a fairly interesting case for getting Angel investors such as my friend and others present to get on board as financial backers. With him, was a wildly ebullient young fellow who said that he was an investment banker. He took a fair part in the Q&A session after the pitch deck was reviewed. Then, he said that after a brief launch in the states, shares would be available to the general public. I innocently asked if they had plans to issue ADR’s or perhaps an ADS? The young man got flustered and told me that I was not fair and that I was using some new financial term to embarrass him. “When did these ADR’s come in to the stock market”?, he asked. “Last week?” With a soft smile, I answered, “1927.” Getting red in the face, he asked how long that I been buying them. “Since 1973”, was my reply. Clearly, the young guy was trying to fake it until he made it. Not that day, and my friend and his associates saved their money. I followed up for a few years and the fledgling company never saw the light of day in the United States. Were they con-men? Hard to say for sure but the young “investment banker” did not pass the smell test.
Finally, the best advice for defeating Imposter Syndrome that I have seen was in Dr. Gay Hendricks book, THE BIG LEAP. The good doctor wrote, “ The things you most love to do reflect your unique abilities. When you are doing what you are really meant to be doing, you don’t have to generate self doubt.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com
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