Advanced TV and Reach & Frequency

Over the last several weeks a few readers and two members of the Media Realism (MR) panel, have asked me to weigh in on Advanced TV and OTT (Over the Top) TV. There is not much that I could add to the current discussion but then, like the Disneyesque bolt out of the blue, came a request from an enthusiastic and erudite MR reader to discuss these growing “TV” options in terms of performance estimates (Reach & Frequency) and frequency distribution patterns. Those questions were centered directly in my wheelhouse—hence this post.

To refresh you memory, or if you are no longer active in the broadcast/advertising game, let us define terms for a moment. Advanced TV is really an umbrella term. It encompasses all forms of TV not included through a broadcast, cable or satellite connection. Over the Top (Ott) is placed by many under the same large umbrella and is video provided over the internet.

Okay, what does this mean? Well, several readers have e-mailed or called me saying how Advanced TV advertising has helped them. Great! You can reach cord-cutters or cord-nevers not reached by cable or satellite and the handful that have no conventional TV of any kind. There is a basic problem to me with this. Clearly, you pick up more viewers to your advertising by going this route. BUT, do the same rules apply as with conventional TV, cable, and satellite? What is the level of viewer attentiveness? I have struggled with this for more than 40 years and felt like some sort of pariah for telling the absolute truth. Way back in the 1970’s, we told people that we REACHED 90+ % of the target with our TV campaigns. Did we really? The issue to me was always that even the best models at the time only provided EXPOSURE OPPORTUNITIES not verifiable delivery. By the late 80’s, unless you were speaking at an annual sales meeting to rally the troops, you avoided saying that reach was in the stratosphere (Reach is the percentage of your target audience exposed to the message and frequency is, of those “reached”, how many times were they able to see the message).

Today, the issue has become far more extreme with advertising avoidance at an all time high. When people watch TV today or any video format for that matter, many have another device going. If you are young, the odds are overwhelming that a Smartphone or Laptop or Tablet is in use and gets special attention during commercial breaks. So, providing performance estimates (i.e, reach & frequency) was always a dicey game at best but now wildly overstates real world delivery. So while Advanced TV does help an advertiser pick up new prospects, never forget that viewing via streaming options still has commercial attentiveness issues that are very real.

The second topic brought to me was the integration of the delivery between conventional TV and Advanced TV. My honest answer is that I am clueless regarding how to integrate the two to come up with a reasonably reliable reach projection. Additionally, it seems anecdotally that there is a greater chance for advertising wear out  with Advanced TV as it is not monitored as closely as is over the air or cable rotations. That leads to the last issue which is the integration of the frequency distributions  of conventional and Advanced TV campaign delivery. To date, I have asked quite a bit but no one seems to have captured this with much precision. Where you can, response is always a nice indicator. Reach & frequency projections to me were always overstated and, in recent years, often wildly exaggerated, but trying to blend the frequency distributions of the two types of TV in today’s world seems way above every analyst’s pay grade at this point (A frequency distribution is how many people were exposed to the message 1+, 2+, 3+, 12+ times, etc).

Is this an arcane discussion? Absolutely. Yet, how are most people determining the right mix of conventional and Advanced? Right now, it seems to be trial and error and far more art than science.

Welcome to 2019! I hope the year is prosperous for all of us. Also, I want to thank the MR readers from all over the world. At present, some 54% of readers are based outside of the United States with particularly strong growth in Western Europe during 2018. Welcome!

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com