Silicon Valley Wisdom

I was doing a bit of digging recently and found that the term Silicon Valley is a good but older than I imagined. While there is a lively dispute going on regarding who coined the term, it appears that Don Hoefler was the first person to use the term “Silicon Valley” in the printed word. That was way back in 1971 which surprised me. Prior to that, many people appeared to refer to the tech area as “Silicon Gulch.”

As the years have passed books have been written about the nuggets of wisdom coming from Silicon Valley. They may be attributed to Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Mark Zuckerberg, a number of venture capitalists and many other tech players. Someone asked me this past week which comment had the most staying power with me. I am embarrassed to say that I do not know the man or woman who first said it but it goes as follows:  “We overestimate what can be done in three years, and underestimate what can be done in 10.”

Think about that line for a few moments. To me, it so dead on that it is almost eerie.

To the graybeards reading this—Remember when cable first began as an advertising medium? Some suggested that the major over the air networks were going to dry up and blow away. Clearly, it did not happen in three years but a decade later, the networks had lost substantial audience share and ad dollars began a shift as well.

The same thing happened with early online activity in late 1999 and early 2000. When the dot.com crashed occurred, online suffered a setback but came roaring back a few years later and, by 2010, only neanderthal advertisers did not have some digital in the mix. How about 2009-2010? If someone wanted to look intelligent in a meeting, the magic word, sometimes whispered, was Facebook. I am convinced that they picked up much too much advertising revenue early on in their development. Did it work? Few knew and sadly, some did not care. They wanted to appear cutting edge.

Look back, if you will, ten years. Think of the things that you do now as a matter of course that you would not have thought of years ago. Netflix streaming? Watching video on your phone? Texting like crazy at age 70? Making bank deposits via your device? These lifestyle changes have been remarkable and we would all regret losing them.

My point is that we, in the media world, need a long term perspective. We need to be flexible and always remember that we will be surprised at both what will happen and what will not.

The great Danish theologian, Soren Kierkegaard, wrote in “Either/Or”—“he who becomes wedded to the spirit of the times soon becomes a widower.” So, embrace change, but do not do a complete 180 degree turn on media mix. Over a decade, absolutely. But constantly shifting gears as we move in to new platforms seems to be a winning approach.

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmaill.com or leave a message on the blog.