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Sunday, October 15, 2017

Can It Go On Forever?

Herbert Stein was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors until both President Nixon and Ford (He today may be more famous for being the father of writer, humorist, sometime actor and investor Ben Stein). Urban legend credits Stein with saying, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

Over the last ten years, two weeks have not gone by where someone has not asked me something close to this: “TV just does work as well as it used to. When will it stop getting so much advertiser money?”  Usually, if it is in person, I break in to my version of a Mona Lisa smile and say simply that I just do not know. If it is in an e-mail, I often conjure up Herb Stein’s alleged quotation.

Years roll by and people foolishly say that this year will be the last of the network upfront market. Yet, each spring the cavalry charge begins anew and smart people place big bets on a declining medium where all of us admit attentiveness to commercial messages is at all time lows. I stay silent. Yes, the bomb is ticking but the fuse is longer than most of us suspected. Or, as Lord Keynes put it, “Markets can stay irrational longer than many can remain solvent.”

Why does TV still get such a large share of advertising funds? Well, to me, it is pretty simple. Social media is exciting but does it move the needle for most products? Mobile may have the most potential but is still in its early stages of development and the message has to be very spare. TV is a safety blanket for marketers. You know it still can move sales but ratings are lower and over-state attentiveness more than ever. It is still the gold standard for many and Nielsen, though tarnished, remains the currency by which the medium is measured and attentiveness be damned.

For years, I have encouraged advertisers to branch out and test other platforms but not abandon TV altogether for many products. Each year, it seems the case for a substantial investment in TV gets weaker. Yet, as the economy rebounds, so do broadcast revenues.

I suppose that the great late American philosopher, Lawrence Peter “Yogi” Berra said it best—“It ain’t over ’til its over.”

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com

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