I Am Too Old To Change

I have been involved in the world of business for well over 40 years. In that time I have heard a line from dozens of people that really annoys me or makes me sad in some cases. It is simply, “I am too old to change.” The world is changing at a faster pace than ever before. Using the “too old to change” excuse strikes as a stalking horse for completely giving up.  I have heard people use it for refusing to lose weight, start an exercise program, stop spending so much, and, of course, not embracing our digital age either personally or professionally.

A particularly poignant example came from someone in the advertising agency business who felt that his days were numbered. He is a deeply experienced creative who has won numerous awards for his TV creative and great print executions. When he wrote to me and said he was too old to change, I laughed out loud. “How old are you, I fired back? 53?” He replied, slightly wounded “51.” I told him that he was much too young and too talented to be throwing in the towel and waiting for the end. “We are all dinosaurs”, I went on, but “even I, far older than you, have shifted gears a great deal in recent years. If I can do it, so can you.”

To me, the important thing is to not pretend to have an overnight conversion. You can, however, be seen as shifting how you spend your time, and getting current over a fairly brief period. It requires quite a bit of reading, perhaps attending a conference or two on your own nickel, and asking questions to younger staffers who may look at you as a person whom the business has passed by.

The habits of a lifetime are deeply embedded in most people. Yet the business landscape, especially, the media world is changing rapidly and no one can sit tight and try to ride it out until retirement. Success is largely a matter of perception. If you say that you cannot do something new, then you surely cannot.

My attitude, perhaps a bit simplistic, is that if you are still breathing, you can change. All of us have seen people who have changed for the worse in many ways, but honestly, I have seem a number that I have seen change for the better as well.

One person whom I know very well says that he is working tooth and nail to restore his relationship with every member of his family. It is tough going and his wife tells him that he can never achieve it given his years of mistakes and former broken promises. I wish him well and sense a greater determination in him than ever before.

As C.S. Lewis wrote, “You are never too old to set another goal or dream a new dream.

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com

Demographic Update

For years, I have been pounding the drum telling people that demographics should be the first line of analysis for media placement, marketing, investment and societal issues. I use them everyday and any forecasting that I do is usually tempered by a heavy dose of demographic scrutiny. Last June, the US Census Bureau released some updated figures across several financial measures that I would like to share with you. What I like about the Census Data is not simply the size of the sample. It is that they often provide the median for many things that they measure.

You have all heard the old line that “you can drown in a river with an average depth of six inches.” The average, of course, is the arithmetic mean. I do not find it particularly useful when looking at many demographic characteristics and especially so when it relates to income, net worth or wealth. The median makes far more sense to me. It is the 50th percentile so it takes out the extremes at both the top and the bottom.

So, here are a few Census factoids:

In the U.S. median household net worth is $80,039. Take out equity in their primary residence (if they have one) and it drops to $25,166. So, in other words, sans house many American families have $25k or less in assets.

We all check our retirement accounts regularly. The median value of retirement accounts was reported as $58,500 (it has to be higher now with the recent record breaking rally on Wall Street). Still, not a fortune especially if you are over 50. And, some one third of working Americans have a retirement account balance of zero.

Some good news came from the Federal Reserve recently. Median household income hit an all time high by the end of 2016 and was at $59,039. The problem is that it was at $58,665 in 1999. So, when pundits say that the middle class is stalled or disappearing they are not exaggerating. It has been a tough slog back for millions of American families to recover from the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

What about earnings? The Census tells us that just under 45% of U.S. households have an adjusted gross income or taxable income (after exemptions and standard deductions) of under $30,000. Some 80% have a taxable income under $100,000 and approximately 5% over $200,000.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve tells us that the top 1% of households have 38.6% of the net worth. The bottom 80% have 23.8% of U.S. assets.  Credit Suisse measured it globally and the top 1% control  almost exactly 50% of the world’s wealth. Credit Suisse also projects that the top .7%  worldwide are millionaires in U.S. dollars.

As marketers who are in the higher echelon of both income and net worth, can we truly relate to these data? Our economy has clearly improved, albeit slowly, the last few years, but financial markets have done very well. Yet, only 51.9% of Americans have any holdings in equities. So, the bottom half has benefited not at all from a 23,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average.

I hate to end on a sour note but I cannot resist mentioning a new and, to me scary, milestone regarding the national debt. This year the national debt is crossing the $20 trillion dollar mark. It will be 7% more than our Gross National Product(GNP) this year. So what, you may say, that is just a number. Well, economic historians often place an 80% national debt to GNP ratio to be a danger zone. Yes, we are lower than Greece, Japan and many European nations. It still, however, gives me pause. Will our new tax reform or cuts, if they pass, be revenue neutral? It seems unlikely. And, my friends, what about the unfunded liabilities in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid?  They are somewhere between $100-200 trillion without reform. How about  one more zinger? If we ever have real interest rates again, not 12%, but let us say, 5%, the annual budget deficit will soar out of control as most of our national debt is now short term at artificially low rates.

So, we face growing wealth inequality and huge debt and how do we market to the struggling 50th percentile and below?

Time for a drink. Cheers!

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com

Can It Go On Forever?

Herbert Stein was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors until both President Nixon and Ford (He today may be more famous for being the father of writer, humorist, sometime actor and investor Ben Stein). Urban legend credits Stein with saying, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

Over the last ten years, two weeks have not gone by where someone has not asked me something close to this: “TV just does work as well as it used to. When will it stop getting so much advertiser money?”  Usually, if it is in person, I break in to my version of a Mona Lisa smile and say simply that I just do not know. If it is in an e-mail, I often conjure up Herb Stein’s alleged quotation.

Years roll by and people foolishly say that this year will be the last of the network upfront market. Yet, each spring the cavalry charge begins anew and smart people place big bets on a declining medium where all of us admit attentiveness to commercial messages is at all time lows. I stay silent. Yes, the bomb is ticking but the fuse is longer than most of us suspected. Or, as Lord Keynes put it, “Markets can stay irrational longer than many can remain solvent.”

Why does TV still get such a large share of advertising funds? Well, to me, it is pretty simple. Social media is exciting but does it move the needle for most products? Mobile may have the most potential but is still in its early stages of development and the message has to be very spare. TV is a safety blanket for marketers. You know it still can move sales but ratings are lower and over-state attentiveness more than ever. It is still the gold standard for many and Nielsen, though tarnished, remains the currency by which the medium is measured and attentiveness be damned.

For years, I have encouraged advertisers to branch out and test other platforms but not abandon TV altogether for many products. Each year, it seems the case for a substantial investment in TV gets weaker. Yet, as the economy rebounds, so do broadcast revenues.

I suppose that the great late American philosopher, Lawrence Peter “Yogi” Berra said it best—“It ain’t over ’til its over.”

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com

Letting Go

A few years ago, I ran in to a former colleague at a store. It had been perhaps 15 years since I had seen him. We spent a few minutes catching up and then he asked if I ever ran in to Mr.X, whom we had both worked with at the same time. When I told him that I saw him every few years accidentally,  just as we were meeting now, he exploded saying that he hated the bastard and would like to punch his lights out.


I smiled and he did not think it was funny. He went off on a long riff as if it were yesterday of all the horrible things the man had done to him. "He was awful to you, too.  Remember the day he threw you under the bus at the client meeting so he could look good?" I agreed that I remembered it.


He was annoyed that I seemed so calm about it all. I gave him my standard speech about not looking at life through a rear view mirror. He shook his head rather violently. "What are you going to say next, Don? That I should do some expressive writing and get him out of my system or chant and meditate? Get a personality transplant?"


I told him pretty directly that this was hurting him a lot and not the person with whom we both had serious issues. Stealing a well worn line, I told him that he "was swallowing poison and expecting the other guy to die."


This broke the ice and I pulled out another platitude. Life has been good to both of us and we survived and prospered over the last few decades. I went on to say that you cannot live in the past or the future but only in the present. That jerk will not likely be part of our day today or tomorrow so let’s move on.


Letting go is hard to do. We all need to do it. I find that I can forgive and have done so on a number of times but forgetting is a lot harder.  People have also forgiven me. As I get older, I also find that I try to see the issue from the point of view of whomever was my nemesis. Was I wrong? Was he or she going through significant personal turmoil at the time so they lashed out at  those beneath them corporately (That proved to be true several times)?

Living in the present is liberating and, candidly, it is all that we have. If you are holding a long standing grudge, why not give it a try?

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com or leave a message on the blog.