In recent weeks, I have received requests from several Media Realism (MR) readers to address the issue of a possible imminent decline in the US population.
I am a media and especially business news junkie and I did not see anything about the issue. The people who made the request are what I would deem to be serious people and not alarmists. So, I did some digging, and they appear to be on to something.
In several MR posts over several years, I have discussed how the entire Western world was getting older. A big issue to me was that many European countries had developed a “provider” state that had health care and old age issues covered for everyone in the nation. As the population aged, a smaller number of people would be supporting a growing group of seniors who contractually had several expensive benefits. Taxes were high by American standards but would have to spike upwards to keep the benefits intact. Something will have to give.
In the US, we had nowhere near the benefits of many nations, so the situation did not seem drastic. Yet, like much of Europe and Japan our population is aging. Also, the fertility rate was dropping. To keep population flat, the average woman must have 2.1 children. As I type, we are 1.6-1.7. In America, we have made up the shortfall with of immigrants visiting and staying in our country. Well, I have seen a few articles saying that this year, for the first time, America will have a slight decline in population as early as this year. This will be the first time a drop in population has happened.
What I first saw that in print, I was dismissive. What about the Civil War? Some 700,000 people perished, and the population base was much smaller then. Yet, it was true. The population of the United States went up during the Civil War as immigration, particularly from Ireland, was very high at that time.
So, there are two ways for the population to grow. The first is through what demographers called natural increase—more births than death in a year. The second is via net immigration—more newcomers than people leaving.
With fertility rates at an all-time low in the US plus a government policy to close much of the immigration door and force some non-citizens to leave, it is mathematically possible that we could have a decline this year and certainly next year in the US population.
Some people have told me so what? A few others tell me that I worry too much, and things will work themselves out.
Here are my concerns that emerged when I examined data largely from two solid sources—Pew Research and the American Enterprise Institute.
If we have a smaller workforce, it follows that we will have lower output. A labor shortage is inflationary as it pushes up wages. We could have a return of stagflation, the horror of the 1970’s economy.
Big cities will be affected. There will be fewer riders for public transit which is already struggling financially. Restaurants, coffee shops, fast food, hotel staff and Lyft and Uber drivers are likely to be young immigrants.
How about construction? The majority of roofers, painters and drywall installers are immigrants. In major states such as New York, Texas, Florida and California immigrants tend to dominate construction crews of all kinds.
Do not forget the rural areas. Roughly 2/3 of agricultural workers are immigrants. Fruits and vegetables have a very labor-intensive harvesting, and need large teams to bring the food in. Without enough workers, some foods could rot on the vine and prices at the supermarket would spike.
An aging population such as ours needs medical professionals. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 27% of our doctors are immigrants. We need doctors and we need them now.
Financially, throughout our history immigrants have been a huge engine of growth. They tend to be fearless, hard workers who live simply until they make it, and they have appreciated the freedoms which American offers. They tend to be young, and they can contribute for a long time to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid all of which face some financial and demographic headwinds in the not-too-distant future.
I have no problem with immigration reform and understand the importance of bringing people to America legally but if we let our population stagnate or decline, the American dream may cease to be.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com or leave a message on the blog.
