Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the rage these days. Futurists, stock market analysts, gloom & doomers, sociologists, and mega-cap companies are all weighing in. They are all right about one thing—it is coming on fast and soon and it will likely be as transformational as the Internet revolution of a few decades ago.
I read many of the AI forecasts with great interest and some with amusement. One that tickles me quite a bit is that AI will be a sudden killer of online search. Another was that Tim Cook of Apple had no AI strategy.
We need to step back from the somewhat breathless forecasts for AI’s future and keep our feet on the ground. As, is true of many events in business evolution, I have seen this movie before. Remember, when Microsoft brought out Bing? Many were saying that Google (now Alphabet) was toast. Well, today Bing has a lusty 3% of search in the U.S. today while Alphabet has 88%+. Or when Google invaded social media and Facebook (now Meta) was finished? It did not happen.
Look at what the cash rich mega-caps in tech are doing. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle are investing billions in AI R&D. Yes, Nvidia may have the current lead according to some reports but there are dozens of smaller companies working in the AI space. If they make big inroads into AI you can be sure one or two of the deep pocketed giants will scoop them up. Does Tim Cook have an AI strategy? You can bet he does and some great minds are working on it along with AI swat teams at the other tech giants.
So will AI kill search as we know it? Yes, but not overnight. Consumers lag technology and the population in the West is rapidly growing older so adapting to a new approach may take a bit of time. Also, the long awaited recession in the U.S. will likely slow things down as well.
To sum up, I am convinced AI will rock our world. And, yes, search will suffer OVER TIME. Just do not be naive enough to think that today’s big players will get hurt as much as some are forecasting.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com or leave a message on the blog.
