A long time ago I was a freshman in college. There was a columnist for William F. Buckley’s NATIONAL REVIEW complaining about student riots in Paris led by a fellow known as Danny the Red. The prose did not exactly sparkle but there was one line in it that has stuck with me. He wrote “Civilization hangs by a slender thread.”
As we have suffered with Covid 19 since March 2020, people verbally are echoing the tone of that 53 year old rant. When I look at history, I see something different.
To me, the big issue with the Covid 19 epidemic is the speed of how it spread plus how it shut down economies across the globe. Some 11 million Americans lost their jobs very quickly; perhaps faster than any other time in our history. Historically, other devastating events tended to move much more slowly.
Some people think that the depression happened immediately after the the stock market crash of 1929. It wiped out a relative few as less than 10% of Americans were shareholders at that time. And, did you know that stocks doubled in value over the 12 months following the Great Crash? The economy and stocks then fell and bottomed out in 1933.
The influenza epidemic of 1918-1920 moved across the country slowly (my paternal grandfather died of it) as people had little mobility then and over 30% of the population remained on farms and were somewhat isolated from big cities.
Some media outlets disturb me as do some politicians who say how great things were before the pandemic hit. They WERE great for a large number of us but not the overwhelming majority of Americans. Consider these facts:
1) Yes, the unemployment level in the U.S. was the lowest since 1969 in January, 2020. Yet, millions had minimum wage service jobs.
2) The Federal Reserve essentially reaffirmed their statement of three years earlier that approximately four in 10 Americans could not afford a $400 emergency room visit or car repair.
3) Some 17% were unable to pay their current bills in full every month (this includes minimum payments on credit card debt).
4) In 2018, one quarter of Americans skipped necessary medical care as they could not afford it.
5) 25% of the labor force had no retirement savings at all.
6) One in four people under 35 had more than half of their take home pay going to rent.
Clearly, when things seemed good due to a bulging Dow Jones Industrial Average, about half of America was living on the edge.
I have always thought of Henry David Thoreau’s 1850’s quote that “most men live lives of quiet desperation.” Some say that he meant that they got wrapped up in money, possessions, and recognition but, to me, he was referring to the precarious financial existence that many faced. Did you know that the United States abolished debtors prisons in 1833 while Britain finally shut theirs down in 1869. Don’t believe me? Read Charles Dickens.
Another aspect that I have not read much about is the food jeopardy that many have faced in recent months. Why now? Well, society has changed. In 1820, 72% of Americans lived on farms. By 1850, it had dropped to 64%, 30% as mentioned above in 1920, and less than 2% today. During previous financial crises, people often returned to the family farm or could work for room and board. There is no such option today.
So, as is true for all of us, we hope the pandemic is under control soon. And, we wish to see a rebound in the economy that is significant as well. Yet a look at history tells us that Thoreau was correct in the 1850’s. A majority of us (not readers of this post) were struggling before the pandemic hit.
If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com or leave a message on the blog.
