Media in the Era of Coronavirus

Since most of the readers of MR are sitting at home, I thought it best not to comment over the last few weeks about the impact of the Coronavirus on the media world. Now seems as if it is an appropriate time to make a few observations.

Here goes:

1) Clearly, conventional over the air TV is generating higher ratings. Some broadcasters, invariably in smaller Designate Market Areas (DMA) have written to me with a certain amount of breathless excitement. They think that the newly acquired viewing that they have over the last month will be “sticky.” People will enjoy local news and weather and come back to over the air TV. I try to be kind in my replies but I just do not see it. A big problem many local stations face these days is the lack of car sales. With millions out of work and more millions sittingat home, car sales at a standstill and dealers are not advertising. In some DMA’s, it is not unusual for car dealers to be 40% of a station’s revenue in a given month. Yes, broadcasters in certain markets will get a nice boost in the second half of the year from political spending, but things will still be tough.

2) The streaming services are getting great usage and trial. Netflix reported an eight figure jump in global subscriptions in figures released early this week regarding first quarter performance. Many have e-mailed me saying that they are binge watching series after series that were on their “to do list.” A lady in Spain wrote to me that she felt guilty about letting her children watch so much video but it kept peace in the family.  Speaking of Spain, Disney + had an impressive launch in several Western European countries in late March. On day one, some five million people downloaded the Disney + app. Clearly, Disney as a company is taking it on the chin with movie theaters empty, theme parks and cruise ships closed, and ESPN now posing as ESPN Classic 24/7. Long term, Disney + should gain faster traction than projected earlier due to the global lockdown. Corporate earnings of Disney may be down for a couple of years, however.

3) The pipeline of program content is getting empty as production is shut down around the world. Disney and Netflix with their extensive libraries have something to offer. Rumor has it that some smaller movie producers have approached Netflix to offer their new films to them as they do not know when they could get theatrical release. Amazon Prime could buy the rights to certain series and films as they have deep pockets.

4) Quibi TV—this mobile only service has gotten off to a hot start with 750,000 subscribers in the first few days. They may have a severe pipeline problem as their content tends to be in 10-12 minute segments. We wish then well.

5)) What about sports?  This is a big one and not just in North America. Sports starved readers have been emailing me from all over the globe. One fellow told me it was fun to watch the Golf Channel cover tournaments from many years ago for several days. Now, many people crave some live action. Baseball fans have lamented that it was not April without opening day and I agree. A few people have told me that sports will not do as well when societies open up as people will have found new outlets to spend their time. I do not see that happening. Pent up demand with be great. Fans may not visit their favorite event or hometown stadium for a year or so but they will be glued to the tube across the world.

6) Newspaper—as critics mount about the ham handed approach of some politicians toward the crisis, major papers such as The New York Times, Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal have for sure generated more readership. Whether this sticks and lasts into 2021 is iffy at best.

7) Radio—probably getting a bit hurt as millions more people are at home and using video for their media preference. Little in car listening these days.

In future weeks, I will fulfill reader requests that I address what might happen as the economy in North America opens again.

Until then, stay safe, my friends.

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com