My Concerns with Artificial Intelligence

 The news both in cable and print is full of detail about the opportunities and perils of the growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI). This post will discuss a few of the issues that I have with it.

There are definitions of AI. Let us use, for simplicity, the most common one: “The ability of a computer of other machine to perform those activities that are normally thought to require intelligence.”

Upfront, let me stress that I feel that it is very real and will become a productive source in business and our overall society. That said, I do have a few questions.

Some things are just frightening people. In an interview with the Financial Times, a leading corporate executive, estimated that AI had the potential to replace most white-collar jobs with the next 12-18 months. Some are calling this the “white collar apocalypse.” There is no question that handling workflows has been the province of middle management for decades and AI should help large organizations streamline tasks and need fewer well compensated humans. For smaller companies with a narrow range of tasks or have very specific needs, AI will likely customize models designed exclusively for them that will save payrolls.

My only issue with the above is that is not going to happen overnight. Look what has happened simply with what we have today. Millions of people use programs such as TurboTax, eliminating a significant amount of small accounting firms or one person shops who did taxes for people. Ask any lawyer who is over 70. When they started decades ago, they spent days in law libraries searching for precedents. Now, within minutes, the search engine can provide much of the data you need to prepare for many cases. With AI, the same thing will happen in business and hopefully in government bureaucracies.

When people say that this cannot happen, they forget that when businesses are handed a way to lower expenses, they take it. So, to me, the 12-18 months’ timeline is a ridiculous exaggeration. Yet, employment will change and change significantly over the next decade as AI picks up momentum.

I see tremendous positives for advances in medicine and even some in national defense. Of course, businesses will benefit with a streamlined staff.

What of the displaced staffers as AI gathers speed? This is a tough one. For 50 years, I have heard both Washington and some state governments talk of job re-training for displaced workers. Not much has really happened. Perhaps this time, some talented people will find a way to help in a meaningful way.  European countries, on balance, have done a much better job than the U.S. has on job retraining. The other straw in the wind is that if you look at our economy historically, when one door closes, usually two or three new ones open up. The real danger will be for people over 50 who often would have a hard time adapting as the ground beneath them moves.

So, AI is real and its growth and acceptance will happen. My main issue is the speed of his use in the general economy.

If you would like to contact Don Cole directly, you may reach him at doncolemedia@gmail.com or leave a message on the blog.